The Scottish Parliament election of 2026 is underway, with counting set to begin at 09:00 across the country. This election, which will determine the 129 members of the Scottish Parliament, has already seen a significant drop in expected turnout compared to 2021, with only 51% of the population voting. The SNP, led by the outgoing finance secretary Shona Robison, is optimistic about winning the election for the fifth time in a row, aiming for a majority of 65 MSPs to push for an independence referendum. However, the race for second place is still too close to call, with Labour and Reform UK neck and neck. The Scottish Greens and the Lib Dems are also hoping to make significant gains, with the former aiming to hold the SNP's feet to the fire on climate issues and the latter seeking to shed the baggage from their controversial coalitions with the Tories at Westminster.
The election has been marked by a smooth polling day, according to the Electoral Commission, despite some candidates facing abuse and intimidation during the campaign. The count is expected to begin at 09:00, with the first results declared at around lunchtime and the full picture expected by the evening. The SNP's goal of winning an outright majority of 65 seats to push for Scottish independence is a lofty one, given the electoral system's mix of first-past-the-post and proportional representation.
The election results will have significant implications for the UK government's stance on a fresh independence poll. The SNP's success could force the issue of Scottish independence, while the performance of other parties will determine the balance of power in the Scottish Parliament. The election also comes amidst a backdrop of political tension, with the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP agreeing on the need to bring back overnight counts, and the Scottish Labour deputy Jackie Baillie and Reform UK Scottish leader Malcolm Offord using the West of Scotland region as a backup if they don't win in their constituencies.
The election has also been marked by a significant number of outgoing MSPs, with 42 choosing not to seek re-election. The Scottish Greens' breakthrough in the last term, when they entered government with the SNP, has set the stage for a potential shift in the balance of power in the Scottish Parliament. The election results will be closely watched by the UK government, with the SNP's success potentially forcing the issue of Scottish independence and the performance of other parties determining the future of the Scottish Parliament.
